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Gab Session – The Maddest Of Marches
How good will the NCAA men’s college basketball tournament be?
I mean, sure, the George Mason thing was amazing last year, and let’s not forget that Wichita St. and Bradley reached the Sweet 16, LSU shocked Duke, Kansas lost in the first round for the second year in a row, #14 seed (Northwestern St.) shocked #3 (Iowa), and #2 Tennessee needed a shot to avoid losing to #15 Winthrop.
Heck, we might not have many upsets this year, and I can guarantee you that no one from the Colonial Athletic Association is making the Final Four. But several factors will combine to make this one of the most difficult years to fill your office. That is why:
New! Over the past decade, guys like Greg Oden and Kevin Durant would have jumped straight to the NBA, but now they’re playing almost a year in college. This is creating some big surprises. Who would have believed that Texas would be in the playoffs this year after losing five players from the Elite Eight, let alone a threat to go deep?
Don’t Study Those Who Leave. And while that’s all well and good, you also have less depth at the traditional schools of power, because their schools aren’t four years long. This is the best draft: LaMarcus Aldridge (Texas, #2 in the ’06 NBA draft), Tyrus Thomas (LSU, #4), Rudy Gay (UConn, #7), Patrick O’Bryant (Bradley, #9), Ronnie Brewer (Arkansas, #14), Cedric Simmons (NC State, #15), Shawne Williams (Memphis, #17), Quincy Douby (Rutgers, #19), Renaldo Balkman (South Carolina, #20), Rajon Rondo (Kentucky, #21), Marcus Williams (UConn, #22), Josh Boone (UConn, #23), Kyle Lowry (Villanova, #24), Shannon Brown (Michigan St., #25) and Jordan Farmar (UCLA, #26) ). All of these kids left before the end of their fourth year, as we can expect Oden, Durant and others will do after 2007. This kind of continuous talent drain brings a young man closer to a big man.
Distribution of “Non-Traditional” Schools. Fewer and fewer groups are surprised by national TV appearances playing in the Big Dance. The Missouri Valley Conference gets more space than Britney’s lower regions these days (okay, okay, close), so there’s nothing “mid-major” about the MVC. Winthrop beat Mississippi St., Old Dominion and Missouri St. on the road this year, and gave scares to North Carolina, Maryland, Wisconsin and Texas A&M (their only four losses). They may not win their first game, but they are sure that they will not be afraid of their opponent.
Who is the Top Seed? No one seems to want to be #1 this year. A month ago, it was easy: North Carolina, Florida, UCLA and Wisconsin. Then every school started losing. UCLA was just eliminated from the first round of the Pac-10 tourney. Carolina dropped its last three regular-season games. Florida has lost three of its last five. Wisconsin has lost two of its last three. Now Ohio St. they’re the best team in the country, but man, they’re young. Is anyone expecting him to make six NCAA games? Other possible #1 seeds: Kansas, Texas A&M, Georgetown, Memphis (ew). There is no flawless team in the group.
Still, it should be an amazing March Madness run. No team is flawless, and few are unlucky.
Boy, the NFL never sleeps. What do you think have been the best acquisitions so far in pro football’s free agency season?
BoDog Bookmakers, BoDog.com : Two teams made several rounds that made them the “winners” of the early 2007 free season. The New England Patriots left their record as a “savings” team and had a great success in free agency. Adalius Thomas was arguably the best protected player on the market, while Wes Welker has quietly become one of the most versatile PR/KR/WRs in the NFL. They also added value to backup RB Sammy Morris to compensate for the loss of Corey Dillon. The San Francisco 49ers also did a lot to improve their terrible secondary that ranked 26th against a year ago. Nate Clements is a Pro-Bowl-caliber DBm while Michael Lewis is a solid-if-unspectacular defensive presence. On offense, the Niners added Ashley Lelie, another deep threat to work in QB Alex Smith’s army.
I’ll ask about the rest of the NCAA Tournament next week, but for now, can you give me the Final Four, pre-bracket you’re looking forward to?
BDB, BoDog.com : Let’s switch to Bodog oddsmakers on this one. Currently, the top four favorites to win the NCAA title are North Carolina (9/2), Florida (9/2), Ohio State (6/1) and Kansas (6/1).
And give us a few teams ranked #9 or worse that you think have the best chance to cause the first upset?
BoDog Bookmakers, BoDog.com : Well, everyone counted out Gonzaga when they lost Josh Heytvelt to suspension, but you can’t forget the Zags when the travel season rolls around. After losing to a tough Memphis team by one point on Feb. 17, Gonzaga won its last five games and took the West Coast Conference championship for the fourth straight season. Senior guard Derek Raivio has put this team on his shoulders, and so far it’s working. Check back in Syracuse if it sells out. The Orange beat Georgetown on Feb. 26 and won its last six games after struggling in a big time in late January.
Mavs or Suns? Suns or Mavs? I know Dallas has been amazing in the regular season…do you see it translating to another trip to the NBA Finals? Does Phoenix have enough to do this time? Can San Antonio sneak in there?
BoDog Bookmakers, BoDog.com : The teams that make the NBA Finals are rarely on the same side. So, until Phoenix learns to play defense, or offense, they will have their doubters. However, at 9/4 to win it all, they will also get their fair share of believers. San Antonio isn’t sneaking up on anyone. Not with a list that includes Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili. The Spurs are 7/2 to make the NBA Finals and 6/1 to win the event. This does not mean flying under the radar at all. According to Bodog oddsmakers, the team with the best shot is the Dallas Mavericks. It’s a complete team that can beat San Antonio with a stoppage defense, and outpace Phoenix with a solid offense. The Mavs’ ability to play everyone’s style makes them a 1/1 favorite to return to the finals and a 2/1 favorite to win the title.
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