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Betting Trends

I like match-ups and handicap situations. This includes things like strengths versus weaknesses, foul lines, homecoming and revenge spots. I’m not big on betting trends. Trends can be dangerous. Some novice sports bettors think, “This team has lost 3 straight against the number, which means they are more likely to cover this game.” Well, you’d better have more reason on your side to back a team than just something like that.

For example, Fresno State entered the Hawaii game two weeks ago as a home dog. Fresno hasn’t covered since late last season. Anyone looking at trends might think that Fresno has to cover this game, as they must for a cover. Well that kind of simplistic thinking doesn’t cut it in the competitive world of disability sports.

For the record, Fresno got bombed again, 68-37 as a +3 home dog. That makes them 0-6 against the spread this season. Well, so maybe the next game will be covered, right? Now they are REALLY due! Well the factor due is still strong as Fresno failed to cover again, this time as a +31 dog in La Tech, a 38-6 defeat. OK, so they are getting closer, but try to tell the man at the betting window while waving a lost ticket in his face. It won’t cut it!

I would suggest focusing more on match-ups and things like home/road play, and actual play, rather than looking at a trend. For example, on Sunday in the NFL I had a play on the visit of the Atlanta Falcons in Cincinnati. In my analysis I noted, “This game all comes down to who leads in the trenches. Atlanta owns a league leading 6.1 yards per run, while second place is a far 5.2 with the Eagles. Simply put the Falcons running the ball on everyone.

They topped 220 rushing yards in 4 of 6 games. Cincinnati on the other hand allows 4.6 yards per carry, well above the league average of 4.0. That’s why I expect the Falcons to control the clock and have a lot of success moving the football. Cincinnati is thought to have an explosive offense, but this year it is not. The Bengals are averaging 5.1 yards per play, right in line with a league wide average of 5.1 ypp. Atlanta comes in at 5.5 yards per play on offense.

The Bengals have really fallen on hard times offensively as of late. In the last three games, they scored 17, 13 and 13 points. What makes these numbers even weirder is that Carson Palmer hasn’t been picked off in any of the last three games. In fact, they only have two total turnovers in these games. So it’s not like the mistakes are keeping them out of the end zone.” Atlanta has the personnel to give problems to the Bengal offense, and they should have a big day running the football.” Cincy not only covered but won the game.

See what I’m looking at? First, look at what I wasn’t looking at: No trends! Second, I examined how the Bengals played in the end, the mismatch on the field that favored the visitors, and the public perception that Cincy is an explosive offense. Cold, hard facts, for me, are more important than any betting trends or “late factors.”

Here’s the catch for trend bettors: WHEN will this trend happen? It is impossible to say based only on late trend factors. The success of disability sports encompasses many factors. It is wise to look at as many factors as possible, such as home field, weather, playing surface, coaching, strengths versus weaknesses and revenge spots. Winning ATS is about sifting through all the pieces and finding multiple corners of a game, not just one angle.

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