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Handicap the Kentucky Derby – America’s Premiere Horse Race

Every year, millions of people try to handicap the Kentucky Derby. While other major horse races in America may have larger purses and offer some of the best races on the planet, the Kentucky Derby is the classic American race for three-year-olds. Traditionally contested on the first Saturday in May each year, the Derby is limited to a field of 20. However, since each horse in the race was asked to do something he has not tried in the past, that is more than entering enough of them. strain any horse racing handicapper’s brain.

The key to handicapping the first leg of the Triple Crown (the Preakness and Belmont are the other two legs) is to understand that it is a classic race at a classic distance. The Kentucky Derby is contested over 1 1/4 miles. That is further than the 3-year-old horses have run until then and usually, because all 20 posts are full, it is a bigger field than they were competing against.

The changes in field size and distance make a big difference and make it difficult to project just which horses will be able to handle the distance and pandemonium. Traffic problems abound for Derby horses and finding a good ride can mean the difference between success and failure. You can’t handicap racing odds, but you can handicap breeding, form, and speed.

First look at horse breeding and determine which ones are bred to go the classic distance. Some past performances now offer what is called the “Dose Index,” for each horse, a mathematical way of determining a score based on the preferred race distance of the horse’s ancestors. The lower the dose, the more likely the horse will handle a mile and a quarter.

Many times when handicapping the Kentucky Derby, prognosticators should focus on speed figures. While not completely irrelevant, they don’t weigh as heavily as dose, speed, and form when getting a good bet. Once you have determined which horses are bred for the distance, the next task is to determine which horses are rounded in shape at the right time. In horse racing, timing is very important and trainers try to have their horses in peak physical condition by the first Saturday in May. Look at the races leading up to the Derby and try to determine how the horse has progressed and what he can leave.

Pace is a big part of the race as well. Very few front runners have won the Derby, but horses with both tactical speed and a good late fare do very well. Because the traffic problems are many and it is sometimes necessary to tie into the pack or go wide in the stretch, the runners must be able to change gears. While the last Derby winner, Mine That Bird, could slide in on the rail with a very skillful and lucky pilot in Calvin Borel, such trips are rare.

The last tip about the Kentucky Derby that I would like to share with you is that there are many types of races for true horse players. There are playing races and watching races. While the Derby is exciting it is usually not a good race to make money on unless you have a crystal ball. Watch it and enjoy it, but save the bulk of your bankroll for races that are easier to handicap and more manageable fields with horses that have proven they can do what is asked of them.

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