Are 4 Year Old Horses Faster Than 3 Year Old Top 10 Reasons the Kentucky Derby is the Hardest Race to Handicap

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Top 10 Reasons the Kentucky Derby is the Hardest Race to Handicap

Kentucky Derby tau dhau los ua ib qho kev sib tw nyuaj tshaj plaws hauv ntiaj teb kom tsis muaj kev puas tsuaj. Cov neeg xiam oob khab “zoo tshaj plaws” tsis tshua muaj peev xwm xaiv tus yeej, thiab tau txaj muag rau lawv tus kheej hauv qee lub xyoo.

Xyoo tas los no tsis yog phem heev vim qhov nyiam nyiam Street Sense yeej yeej. Tab sis cia peb rov qab mus rau lub sij hawm capsule rau ib qho piv txwv zoo dua. Ob xyoos dhau los hauv 2006 Derby, Andy Beyer xaiv AP Warrior los yeej. AP Warrior ua tiav 18th ntawm 20. Dan Illman ntawm Daim Ntawv Sib Tw Txhua Hnub Cov neeg ua haujlwm xaiv Sweetnorthernsaint. Sweetnorthernsaint ua tiav 7th ntawm 20. Steven Crist ntawm Daim Ntawv Sib Tw Txhua Hnub kuj khaws Sweetnorthernsaint. Koj tus kws sau ntawv tau xaiv Steppenwolfer los ntawm huab. Steppenwolfer tsuas yog ib nrab tawm ntawm huab thiab ua tiav 3rd ntawm 20. Rau cov ntaub ntawv, Barbaro yog tus yeej Derby hauv 2006.

Vim li cas ib haiv neeg no nyuaj rau kwv yees? Tus Tswv paub peb zoo li peb paub txhua tus neeg sib tw sib raug zoo los ntawm lub sijhawm thawj hnub Saturday hauv lub Tsib Hlis rolls ncig. Kuv tau muab ntau qhov kev xav thiab sau kuv tus kheej 10 qhov laj thawj uas yog vim li cas Kentucky Derby yog qhov kev sib tw nyuaj tshaj plaws hauv ntiaj teb rau kev xiam oob qhab. Ua tib zoo saib seb koj puas pom zoo.

Sab saum toj 10 Vim Li Cas Kentucky Derby Tam Sim No Qhov Kev Sib Tw nyuaj tshaj plaws hauv ntiaj teb kom tsis muaj kev puas tsuaj

1. Qhov loj me tau niaj hnub o mus rau qhov siab tshaj plaws ntawm nees nkaum, thiab qhov ntawd yog ntau tus nees los nyem rau hauv ob lub lem thiab tsis xav tias yuav muaj kev tsheb loj heev.

Xyoo no ib daim teb tag nrho ntawm nees nkaum yog xav tau dua. Qhov ntawd txhais tau hais tias cov rooj sib tham pabcuam, kev sib koom ua ke ntawm kev hloov pauv txhais tau hais tias rau thaj chaw ib nrab ntawm qhov loj me, tsoo thiab sib tsoo rau txoj haujlwm, kev hloov pauv loj hauv kev tawm tswv yim los ntawm kev tshaj tawm txoj haujlwm kos, thiab txuas ntxiv pib thiab nres thiab rov pib lub zog. Nws txaus los muab rau koj thiab koj tus neeg ncaws pob ua tus mob migraine.

2. Cov me nyuam 3 xyoos no tseem yog cov hluas, thiab txawm tias peb xav tias peb paub lawv tam sim no, lawv tsis muaj ntau lub neej pib.

Rau ntau tus neeg sib tw xyoo no, cia peb sau qhov pib xyoo 2007, pib xyoo 2008, thiab tag nrho pib. Piv txwv li, Adriano 4-3-7 qhia 4 haiv neeg hauv 2007, 3 haiv neeg hauv 2008, thiab 7 haiv neeg tag nrho.

Adriano 4-3-7

Tom qab ntawv 0-5-5

Loj Brown 1-2-3

Bob Dub Jack 4-3-7

Colonel Yauhas 4-2-6

Txooj Hlau Yaj 5-3-8

Cowboy Cal 3-3-6

Sib 2-3-5

Hnub 3-2-5

Sib 4-3-7

Rov ua dua 4-2-6

Zaj Dab Neeg ntawm Ekati 4-2-6

Z Fortune 2-4-6

AVERAGE 3.1-2.8-5.9

Qhov raug Kentucky Derby 2008 contender muaj peb pib lossis tsawg dua xyoo no thiab txog rau qhov pib tag nrho. Lub sijhawm tom qab lub sijhawm nyiam Big Brown tsuas muaj peb lub neej pib (ob ntawm lawv hauv 2008). Muaj tsawg haiv neeg saib. Qhov ntawd yog qhov kev zoo nkauj thiab kev sib tw ntawm kev tsis zoo ntawm Derby.

3. Tsis muaj ib qho ntawm Derby preps tau sib tw ntawm Derby 1 1/4 mais deb.

Ib qho kev npaj Kentucky Derby yog 1 1/16 mais lossis 1 1/8 mais. Lub 1 1/16 mais kev npaj npog 15% tsawg dua hauv av dua li Derby. Lub 1 1/8 mais kev npaj yog 10% luv dua Derby. Qhov uas ploj lawm 10% lossis 15% yog qhov ntau haiv neeg yeej lossis poob. Xav txog lwm txoj kev. Yog hais tias koj ntxiv tag nrho cov kev sib tw nyob rau hauv tag nrho cov haiv neeg nyob rau hauv cov lus saum toj no koj tau 77. Ntawm cov 77 haiv neeg, tsis muaj ib tug tau khiav ntawm lub Kentucky Derby deb ntawm 1 ¼ mais.

4. Lub Derby preps yog tuav los ntawm ntug dej hiav txwv mus rau ntug dej hiav txwv, yog li ntau ntawm cov colts no tsis tau pom ib leeg ntawm kev sib tw.

Thaum ntxov Derby nyiam Big Brown ntsib (thiab swb) Smooth Air thiab Tomcito hauv Florida Derby thaum Lub Peb Hlis 29. Qhov ntawd yog rau Big Brown. Loj Brown yeej tsis tau tawm tsam Pyro, Colonel John, Gayego, Z Fortune, Bob Black Jack lossis Monba. Nyob rau hauv qhov nyiaj pub dawb ntawm Gulfstream, qhov thib ob ntawm nws peb qhov kev sib tw, Big Brown tau tuav ib tug nees hu ua Heaven’s Awesome. Saum Ntuj Ceeb Tsheej Zoo tsuas muaj ib qho yeej hauv cuaj pib. Peb yuav tsum kawm dab tsi los ntawm qhov ntawd? Tsis ntau!

Qee tus ntawm lwm tus neeg sib tw Derby tau ntsib ib leeg ntawm kev sib tw. Gayego tuav Z Fortune hauv Arkansas Derby. Pyro tuav Z Fortune hauv Risen Star. Tus txiv neej Txias Coal tau kov yeej Recapturetheglory hauv qhov nyiaj pub dawb ntawm Churchill Downs. Yam tsawg kawg ntawm cov haiv neeg no nyob rau hauv cov pa av.

Kuj tseem muaj kev sib tw sib ntaus sib tua ntawm cov khoom siv hluav taws xob tshiab. Colonel John yeej Bob Black Jack hauv Santa Anita Derby. Monba kov yeej Cowboy Cal, Pyro thiab Txias Coal Txiv Neej hauv Blue Grass. Thiab peb yuav tsum kawm dab tsi los ntawm Santa Anita Derby thiab Blue Grass uas yog ob qho tib si khiav ntawm hluavtaws lem? Tsis ntau! Polytrack kev ua tau zoo tsuas yog tsis nqa mus rau cov pa av. Cushion Track yog me ntsis friendlier rau kev sib piv nrog av (tab sis kuv yuav tsis cia siab rau nws).

5. Tsuas yog ob peb tus neeg sib tw ib txwm muaj kev sib tw dhau ntawm Churchill Downs chav kawm, tus tswv tsev txhua xyoo rau Derby. Thiab tam sim no tias lub sijhawm Polytrack yog rau peb, qee tus nees tau npaj tshwj xeeb rau ntawm cov khoom hluavtaws.

Cia peb rov mus saib peb lub rooj ntawm Kentucky Derby contenders. Lub sijhawm no peb yuav saib cov kev sib tw ntawm cov pa av thiab cov kev sib tw ntawm Churchill Downs txoj kev loj. Yog li Adriano 7-1-0 qhia 7 tag nrho cov haiv neeg, 1 haiv neeg ntawm av, thiab 0 haiv neeg ntawm Churchil Downs lub ntsiab.

Adriano 7-1-0

Tom qab 5-1-0

Loj Brown 3-2-0

Bob Black Jack 7-0-0

Colonel John 6-0-0

Txooj Hlau Yaj 8-7-2

Cowboy Cal 6-1-0

Sib 5-1-0

Sib 5-2-1

PIB 7-6-1

Rov ua dua 6-3-1

Zaj Dab Neeg ntawm Ekati 6-6-0

Z Fortune 6-5-0

AVERAGE 5.9-2.7-0.4

Tus raug Kentucky Derby 2008 contender muaj rau lub neej pib, thiab tsawg tshaj li peb ntawm cov pib yog nyob rau cov pa av. Tus neeg sib tw Derby ib txwm muaj hmoo kom muaj kev sib tw dhau ntawm Churchill Downs lub ntsiab lus. Qhov ntawd yeej tsis ntau mus ntxiv. Kuv liam nws ntawm Poly-Preps.

6. Rov qab mus rau qhov loj me me, yog tias tus neeg ncaws pob ua yuam kev me, nws tuaj yeem poob kev sib tw hauv ib pliag.

Calvin Borel yog ob qho tib si ntse thiab muaj hmoo hauv xyoo tas los Kentucky Derby. Borel puag Churchill txoj kev tsheb ciav hlau ntawm Txoj Kev Sense zoo li nws lub neej nyob ntawm nws. Thiab tsuas yog thaum nws xav tau, cov hiav txwv zoo li ib feem rau Calvin Borel. Lub duo ntawm Txoj Kev Sense thiab Borel tau them los ntawm kev qhib rau sab saum toj ntawm txoj kab thiab khiav mus rau Hard Spun hauv daim duab zoo meej.

Nws tsis yog ib txwm ua haujlwm zoo li Hollywood movie. Xyoo 1988 yuav tsum muaj tus yeej Triple Crown thiab nws lub npe yog Risen Star. Nyob rau hauv Kentucky Derby xyoo ntawd, nyob rau hauv tus neeg ncaws pob Eddie Delahoussaye, Risen Star raug yuam mus rau sab nraud ntawm lub nraub qaum uas nws nyob mus txog thaum ua tus nqi ntawm lub taub hau ntawm qhov ncab. Hmoov tsis zoo, nws tau lig dhau los ua kom tag nrho cov av ploj mus rau qhov kawg ntawm tus yeej (cov xim ua kom muaj yeej) thiab ua tiav thib peb. Ob lub lis piam tom qab nyob rau hauv Preakness Stakes Risen Star yeej nyob rau hauv kev sib tw ceev tshaj plaws txij li thaum nws txiv Secretariat lub sij hawm sau tseg 1973. Peb lub lis piam tom qab, nws tau nthuav tawm nws cov noob, rub tawm ntawm lub tshav pob thiab yeej los ntawm qhov zoo kawg nkaus 15 qhov ntev hauv qhov ntev tshaj plaws ntawm Triple Crown haiv neeg, qhov hnyav 1½ mais ntawm Belmont Stakes.

Puas yog Delahoussaye lub caij uas yog qhov txhaum lossis nws puas yog txoj kev tsheb tsim los ntawm lwm tus 16 tus nees hauv kev sib tw? Peb nyob ntawm New Orleans tsis txaus ntseeg txog lub luag haujlwm ntawm Risen Star tus kws qhia (thiab ib zaug Fair Grounds tus tswv) Louis J. Roussel III. Roussel yeej ib txwm yog ib tug me ntsis ntawm demagogue thiab nws tau xav hais tias nws tau muab Delahoussaye cov lus qhia nruj kom txwv Risen Star thaum ntxov ntawm tag nrho cov nqi (vim ntshai hlawv tawm chasing lub filly Winning Colours). Rau kuv lub qhov muag hluas, nws zoo li Risen Star yog tus nees zoo tshaj plaws hauv Kentucky Derby thiab nws tsuas yog khiav tawm hauv av. Peb yuav tsis paub dab tsi tshwm sim tiag tiag, tab sis muaj ib yam uas koj tuaj yeem suav tau. Tus neeg ncaws pob tuaj yeem plam Derby hauv ib lub qhov muag. Tsuas nug Eddie Delahoussaye.

7. Txhua tus neeg (xws li qhov zoo tshaj plaws ntawm kev sib tw ntaus neeg xiam oob khab) them nyiaj ntau dhau rau cov xov xwm circus, poob kev taug qab ntawm cov txheej txheem kev tsis taus zoo.

Kuv tsis xav koob xov xwm, tom qab tag nrho lawv muaj haujlwm ua thiab lawv ua tau zoo. Tab sis qee zaum cov xov xwm muab ntau tus cwj mem rau ib tus nees rau lub hom phiaj ntawm kev tsim kom muaj kev npau taws ua rau kev sib tw. Xws li yog rooj plaub hauv 2008 Tampa Bay Derby. Thaum koj nyeem txog tus nees zoo li War Pass koj yuav tsum nkag siab tias nws yog nees ceev, thiab cov nees ceev qee zaum tsis nyiam sib tw. Zoo, War Pass tau sib tw hauv Tampa Bay Derby thiab nws cov neeg txhawb nqa “tau txais kev sib tw” rau lub suab ntawm 1-rau-20 qhov txawv. Qhov kev npaj txhij txog kev ua tiav tau xa ntau tus choj-jumpers mus rau qhov tuag ntxov. Qhov uas hais txog Tampa Bay Derby yog qhov kev sib tw ntaus cov neeg sau ntawv tsis quav ntsej txog ob lub colts uas muaj zog heev (Tsheb Loj thiab Theej Txhoj). Thaum Tsov Rog Tsis Txaus Siab, Tsheb Loj thiab Atoned tsuas yog khiav lawv cov kev sib tw thiab ua tiav ib-ob. Tus kheej, kuv tsis tau coj kuv cov neeg nyeem los twv qhov Tampa Bay Derby. Kuv tau ceev faj heev ntawm kev tshaj xov xwm hype thiab kuv tsis quav ntsej nws.

Zoo, Kentucky Derby tsis xav tau hype. Nws yog hype. Lub tswv yim zoo tshaj plaws yog ua raws li kev sim thiab qhov tseeb kev tsis txaus siab. Lo rau koj rab phom txawm hais tias TV pundits hais li cas (Kuv yuav tsis mloog ntau dhau rau Hank Goldberg thiab nws lub txhab nyiaj piggy).

8. Txoj kev ntau heev yog mob siab rau qhov Dosage Index ntawm contenders. Lub Belmont Stakes yog tib lub pob zeb ntawm Triple Crown qhov twg Dosage Index tiag tiag los ua si.

Kev lag luam yug me nyuam tau txia lub zog kom ceev tau ntau tshaj nees nkaum xyoo tam sim no. Yog li ntawd, cov nees tsis tuav ib yam nkaus thaum lub caij Kentucky Derby npaj. Nws tau dhau los ua tsis tau hnov ​​​​txog rau Derby contender kom muaj ob qho kev npaj ua ntej. Xyoo no Loj Brown tsuas muaj ib qho kev npaj thiab nws tsuas muaj peb lub neej sib tw. Thiab tsis muaj leej twg tsa qhov muag muag. Xyoo tas los Street Sense tsuas muaj ob qhov kev npaj ua ntej yeej Derby.

Rov qab mus rau xyoo 1977, Tus Thawj Fwm Tsav Tebchaws tau muaj cuaj haiv neeg thaum muaj hnub nyoog 2 xyoos, xya qhov uas nws yeej. Tom qab ntawd xyoo 1978 Kev lees paub muaj peb qhov kev npaj (lub San Felipe, Santa Anita Derby thiab Hollywood Derby) ua ntej Derby ntawm nws txoj kev mus rau Triple Crown cheb. Thiab tsuas yog rau cov ntaub ntawv, Affirmed yeej tag nrho peb ntawm nws preps. Kev lees paub tseem muaj suab nrov thoob plaws nws cov menyuam yaus thiab cov tub ntxhais kawm kev sib tw, sib tw nruj me ntsis ntawm av. Leej twg xav tau Polytrack?

Ib qho Kev Ntsuas Zoo (qis dua yog qhov zoo dua siab dua) feem ntau qhia tau hais tias ib tus neeg muaj peev xwm ua tau zoo rau kev ncua ntev. Kev ncua ntev yuav tsum muaj zog thiab muaj zog (thiab tsis tas yuav ceev). Dosage Index tseem los ua si rau mais thiab ib nrab ntawm Belmont, tab sis nws tsis yog qhov tseem ceeb hauv Kentucky Derby.

9. Cov neeg xiam oob khab yuav tsum tau ua lawv cov kev xaiv ua ntej cov ntaub ntawv tshaj tawm huab cua yog qhov tseeb, yog li kev taug qab tsis zoo tuaj yeem hloov pauv txhua yam.

Tsis muaj leej twg xaiv Go For Gin los yeej Kentucky Derby hauv 1994. Tab sis tom qab ntawd lub ntuj qhib (thiab los nag los). Ib tug tub ntawm Cormorant, Mus rau Gin tau bred los hlub txoj kev khiav tawm, thiab ib yam li kev tshaj tawm nws tau ua rau txaj muag rau lwm thaj teb nrog kev yeej pem hauv ntej. Mus Rau Gin them $20.20 rau ib daim pib ncaj $2 yeej. Ib txwm haiv neeg sau ntawv yuav tsum ua kom tau raws sijhawm. Tias yog vim li cas kuv muab kev xaiv rau ob qho tib si ceev thiab tawm ntawm cov xwm txheej yuav tsum huab cua lav nws.

10. Muaj nees nkaum txoj kev xaiv, rau qhov Vajtswv!

Hauv tsib nees teb, ib tus nees nruab nrab muaj ib qho ntawm tsib txoj hauv kev yeej. Qhov ntawd yog 20% ​​random caij nyoog koj muaj xaiv tus yeej. Nyob rau hauv kaum nees teb, ib tug nees nruab nrab muaj ib tug ntawm kaum lub caij nyoog ntawm yeej. Qhov ntawd yog 10% txoj hauv kev. Nees nkaum kev xaiv txhais tau hais tias tus nees nruab nrab muaj ib qho ntawm nees nkaum txoj kev yeej. Qhov ntawd yog 5% txoj hauv kev. Yog tias tsis muaj cuaj qhov laj thawj (hauv 10 saum toj kawg nkaus) tau txais koj, cov lej kev ua si yuav. Nws yog lej yooj yim, kuv tus phooj ywg.

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